Information correct as of January 20th, 2025

The reintroduction of Trump-era tariffs could spark a surprising effect: a significant surge in import cargo volumes. Despite the intention to promote domestic manufacturing, higher import taxes often lead businesses to act quickly, stockpiling goods before tariffs take hold. This pattern, seen during past trade disputes, highlights the short-term ripple effects tariffs can create in global freight.

Historically, tariff announcements have prompted sudden increases in shipping demand as companies race to beat implementation deadlines. Freight forwarders and supply chains experience temporary booms, with cargo volumes soaring as importers aim to minimise costs. This rush doesn’t just affect port activity but also opens opportunities for freight businesses to adapt and thrive in the face of evolving trade policies.

In this blog, we’ll explore why these tariffs could trigger a surge in shipping demand. Drawing on historical examples of businesses rushing to import goods before higher duties hit, we’ll look at the operational challenges and opportunities that arise. Freight companies that prepare for increased volumes and anticipate demand spikes can position themselves to navigate this shift effectively in the year ahead.

What do the Trump Tariffs Really Involve?

The straight answer is that we don’t know yet, and not many of us do—with the exception of a few in the White House. But we can make some educated predictions. The Trump administration has long pushed for aggressive trade policies, and imposing tariffs on various goods is not new.

President Trump's pledge to impose an 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, coupled with even higher rates on Chinese goods, signals a shift that could have significant repercussions. The US imports a substantial amount of goods from China, and tariffs on Chinese goods alone could impact everything from electronics to machinery. According to Capital Economics, the total American demand for Chinese goods currently makes up about 2.8% of China’s GDP.

Trump's approach is aimed at boosting US manufacturing by increasing the cost of imported goods, thereby making it more competitive for domestic industries. For example, he has suggested imposing a 100% tariff on cars made in Mexico, with the hope that it would incentivise companies to either relocate production to the US or build new plants within the country to avoid the tariffs.

While it’s hard to predict exactly how these tariffs will unfold, they could introduce additional costs to the supply chain, exerting pressure on companies across the globe. The US importers will likely bear the brunt of the taxes, but the knock-on effects could ripple across industries. Tariffs are designed to bring revenue into the country, but they also raise concerns about their broader economic impact. There's considerable debate around the likely outcomes – including potential disruptions to global trade. In fact, some economists warn that if these tariffs are imposed as heavily as Trump suggests, it could even threaten global growth.

But let's leave aside the debate on the likelihood of this happening for a moment. What matters here is the possibility of a surge in imports as businesses rush to stockpile goods before tariffs hit. It’s this scenario that will set the stage for the following section, where we’ll explore how such surges could trigger an unexpected boom in shipping demand.

How Could Trump Tariffs Trigger Import Cargo Surges?

It might seem counterintuitive at first that imposing higher import taxes would increase cargo volumes, but history shows otherwise. When tariffs are announced, businesses often rush to import goods before the new duties take effect, creating an unexpected surge in cargo. While these surges tend to be short-term, they can still have a significant impact on the freight and logistics sectors as companies scramble to secure inventory ahead of higher costs.

We could see similar dynamics unfold with Trump's tariffs, particularly given his aggressive trade stance and the potential for substantial tariff hikes. For freight businesses, this could mean both short-term surges as importers rush to beat the clock and longer-term shifts as supply chains adjust to the new tariff environment. 

Let’s explore how Trump tariffs could trigger similar surges, drawing on historical patterns.

The Pull-Forward Effect: Stockpiling Ahead of Tariffs

When tariffs are introduced, businesses typically accelerate their imports to avoid higher future costs. This leads to a temporary surge in cargo volumes as companies rush to stockpile goods before the tariffs hit.

• Stockpiling can cause port congestion and logistical delays.
• The rush to import goods can lead to a short-term increase in demand for freight services.

This “pull-forward” effect has been observed in past tariff situations, especially during trade tensions like the US-China trade war. As Trump’s tariffs loom, a similar rush to import could happen, especially for goods from China and Mexico.

Inflation of Import Demand: Price Increases and Consumer Shifts

Tariffs don’t just raise the cost of foreign goods—they can push domestic prices up, too, leading consumers and businesses to seek cheaper alternatives from abroad. Despite the added tariffs, demand for imports can rise as companies strive to keep costs down and maintain competitive pricing.

• Higher domestic prices may drive demand for foreign goods.
• Businesses might increase imports even with tariffs to maintain margins.

For example, Trump’s 2018 tariffs on washing machines caused a price spike in domestic appliances, prompting consumers to seek out cheaper foreign alternatives. Similarly, businesses could turn to imports from countries not impacted by the tariffs, leading to increased cargo volumes.

Post-Tariff Adjustments: Shifting Trade Routes

Once tariffs are in place, businesses seek ways to mitigate their impact. This might involve switching to alternative suppliers or relocating production to countries unaffected by tariffs. As a result, we could see a shift in global trade routes, with increased imports from previously less significant regions.

• Shifting production to countries like Vietnam, India, or Malaysia could cause cargo surges from these regions.
• This could put pressure on logistics systems in new trade routes.

For example, during the US-China trade war, many businesses shifted production to Southeast Asia to avoid tariffs. A similar trend could happen with Trump’s tariffs, especially if companies look to reduce their reliance on China or Mexico.

Tariff Evasion and Loopholes: Rerouting Goods

Tariffs can prompt businesses to reroute goods through third-party countries to avoid paying higher duties. This creates an increase in cargo volumes from these countries, even though the goods are initially from tariffed regions.

• Companies may use countries like Taiwan or Malaysia to reroute goods and avoid tariffs.
• This leads to higher volumes of cargo from regions not directly affected by tariffs.

Rerouting goods to bypass tariffs was a common tactic during the US-China trade war and could be repeated with Trump’s tariffs if businesses look for ways to circumvent the costs.

Short-Term, Mid-Term, and Long-Term Effects

The impact of tariffs on import cargo volumes can vary across different phases.

Short-Term Effects: Immediate Surge in Imports:

Once tariffs are announced, businesses often rush to bring in goods before the tariffs take effect, leading to a temporary surge in imports. This is a short-term effect, lasting weeks or months as companies try to beat the tariff deadlines.

• The rush to import causes a short-term increase in cargo volumes.
• Port congestion and delays are common in this phase.

Mid-Term Effects: Adjustments to Tariffs and Shifting Trade Flows:

After tariffs are imposed, businesses begin adjusting their supply chains. They may seek new suppliers, shift production to other countries, or pass on the costs to consumers. This rebalancing can lead to new trade flows and cargo surges from alternative countries.

• Supply chains may be reconfigured, leading to increased imports from new trade partners.
• Businesses might absorb some costs or find ways to mitigate tariff impact.

Long-Term Effects: Structural Changes in Global Trade:

In the long term, tariffs can lead to permanent changes in trade flows. Businesses might continue to source goods from different regions, and some industries may increase domestic production. These shifts can reshape global supply chains and trade relationships.

• Companies could continue to rely on countries like Vietnam and India, changing long-term trade patterns.
• Geopolitical relationships could be reshaped as countries seek new trading partners.

Key Strategies for Freight Forwarding Success Amid Tariff Surges

With tariffs potentially leading to a sudden surge in import cargo, freight forwarding businesses face the challenge of staying ahead of demand while maintaining service quality. Whether your focus is on operations, sales, or management, preparation is key. Here are four strategies to help your business adapt, thrive, and stay competitive during times of uncertainty.

1. Stay in the Loop and Anticipate Demand

Understanding when and where tariffs will come into play is critical for managing demand surges. Are your clients preparing for stockpiling ahead of new duties? Could specific trade routes become bottlenecks? Staying informed on industry developments and maintaining real-time communication with your clients allows you to act quickly.

Knowing what’s coming gives you the upper hand. Anticipating shifts in demand means you can adjust capacity, secure the right transport options, and ensure your operations are ready before the rush hits.

2. Strengthen Client Relationships to Anticipate Demand

When faced with the possibility of rising cargo volumes, clear communication with clients is critical. Are they planning to stockpile goods in anticipation of tariffs? Will their shipping patterns shift? These are the types of questions you should be addressing now.

Building strong relationships with your clients enables you to gain the insights needed to forecast demand and plan ahead. Knowing what’s coming allows you to adjust transport capacity, implement contingency measures, and prepare for operational shifts before they happen.

3. Diversify Trade Partnerships and Strengthen Operations

Tariffs often shift trade routes, with businesses turning to new suppliers and markets to avoid high-cost regions. Have you explored opportunities to work with clients importing from alternative countries? Diversifying trade partnerships not only reduces risk but also helps you position your business as a versatile and reliable logistics partner.

Your operations need to be flexible to manage these changes. Your ability to adapt is key, from securing extra transport capacity to preparing warehousing for sudden volume increases. Just as vital is having a skilled team in place—people who can navigate complexity and ensure seamless operations even during demand surges.

4. Boost Operational Flexibility with the Right People

Managing unexpected demand requires flexibility across your entire operation. Could your current systems, transport partners, and warehouse networks handle a rapid rise in shipments? Do you have the personnel in place to manage these challenges effectively?

Hiring experienced professionals who understand the nuances of freight forwarding ensures that your business can respond effectively. From scaling operations to addressing last-minute shifts, having the right people in the right roles will make all the difference when navigating unpredictable market changes.

Final Thoughts on Preparing Freight Forwarding for Tariff Changes

The potential reintroduction of Trump-era tariffs could trigger a surge in import cargo, disrupt supply chains, and create fresh challenges for freight businesses. While the exact impact remains uncertain, preparation is more important than ever.

The most important thing for freight businesses right now is to stay informed and plan ahead. With tariffs potentially pushing import volumes higher, companies must anticipate demand shifts and prepare for increased cargo volumes. This means ensuring operational flexibility, diversifying trade routes, and having the right expertise in place to manage surges effectively. Businesses that are proactive and ready to adapt will be better positioned to capitalise on the opportunities these changes present.

Ready to Navigate the Potential Surge in Freight Demand?

If you’re looking to tackle the key challenges posed by tariffs and demand surges, Freight Appointments is here to help. We specialise in connecting businesses with expert talent for operations, sales, middle management, and executive roles within the freight forwarding sector. Our recruitment services ensure you secure professionals who understand the complexities of your industry and can drive your success during times of uncertainty.

Contact us today to discuss your recruitment needs. Let’s build the team to position your business for continued growth and success.